Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

KC

64%

LV

36%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

12–14

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.3 LV
• Scoring differential−0.3 KC
• Home field+0.3 LV
• Scoring−0.3 KC