Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

DET

57%

CHI

43%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–16

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 CHI
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 DET
• Scoring−0.2 DET
• Passing efficiency+0.2 CHI