New England Patriots at New York Jets

Before kickoff

NE

73%

NYJ

27%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

73%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

42–10

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.7 NE
• Passing efficiency+0.3 NYJ
• Win percentage−0.3 NE
• Home field+0.3 NYJ