Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

JAX

49%

IND

51%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–17

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 IND
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 JAX
• Recent form+0.1 IND
• Win percentage−0.1 JAX