Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

DAL

56%

WAS

44%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–23

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.3 DAL
• Home field+0.3 WAS
• Scoring−0.2 DAL
• QB completion %+0.1 WAS