Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Before kickoff

CHI

38%

SF

62%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–42

Winner SF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.4 SF
• Home field+0.3 SF
• Interception rate−0.2 CHI
• Passing efficiency−0.1 CHI