Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

PIT

25%

DET

75%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

74%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–24

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.4 DET
• Scoring+0.3 DET
• Home field+0.3 DET
• Passing efficiency−0.2 PIT