Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

HOU

29%

KC

71%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–10

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 KC
• Home field+0.3 KC
• QB completion %−0.2 HOU
• Offensive touchdowns+0.1 KC