Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

KC

51%

DAL

49%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–31

Winner DAL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 DAL
• Scoring differential−0.2 KC
• Rushing defense−0.1 KC
• Win percentage−0.1 KC