New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

NE

62%

CIN

38%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–20

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 CIN
• Scoring differential−0.2 NE
• Rushing defense−0.2 NE
• Passing efficiency+0.2 CIN