New York Jets at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

NYJ

27%

NE

73%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

69%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–27

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.5 NE
• Passing efficiency−0.3 NYJ
• Home field+0.3 NE
• Win percentage+0.2 NE