New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

NE

35%

TB

65%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–23

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 TB
• Rest+0.1 TB
• Passing efficiency+0.1 TB
• Scoring+0.1 TB