Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

ATL

25%

NE

75%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–24

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 NE
• Home field+0.3 NE
• QB completion %−0.2 ATL
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 NE