New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

NE

57%

NO

43%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–19

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.3 NE
• Home field+0.3 NO
• Passing efficiency+0.2 NO
• Win percentage−0.1 NE