New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

NE

24%

BUF

76%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–20

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.4 BUF
• Win percentage+0.3 BUF
• Home field+0.3 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.2 BUF