Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

KC

58%

JAX

42%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–31

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 JAX
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 KC
• Interception rate−0.2 KC
• Win percentage−0.1 KC