Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

WAS

66%

ATL

34%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–34

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.3 WAS
• Home field+0.3 ATL
• Scoring differential−0.2 WAS
• Interception rate−0.2 WAS