Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

Before kickoff

JAX

42%

SF

58%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–21

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 SF
• Passing efficiency−0.2 JAX
• Win percentage+0.1 SF
• Offensive touchdowns+0.1 SF