Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

PIT

57%

NE

43%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–14

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 NE
• Scoring−0.2 PIT
• Win percentage−0.1 PIT
• Offensive touchdowns−0.1 PIT