Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

TB

68%

HOU

32%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

47%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–19

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Offensive touchdowns−0.4 TB
• Scoring−0.3 TB
• Home field+0.3 HOU
• Scoring differential−0.1 TB