San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

SF

60%

NO

40%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

41%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–21

Winner SF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.4 SF
• Passing efficiency+0.3 NO
• Home field+0.3 NO
• Interception rate+0.2 NO