New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

NE

36%

MIA

64%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–27

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 MIA
• QB yards/attempt+0.1 MIA
• Win percentage+0.1 MIA
• Scoring+0.1 MIA