Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

DEN

54%

IND

46%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

36%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–29

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.3 IND
• Home field+0.3 IND
• Passing efficiency−0.2 DEN
• Rushing defense−0.1 DEN