Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

KC

56%

DEN

44%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

0–38

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DEN
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 KC
• Win percentage−0.1 KC
• Rest−0.1 KC