Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

LAC

61%

NE

39%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–7

Winner LAC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NE
• Scoring−0.3 LAC
• Interception rate−0.3 LAC
• Scoring differential−0.2 LAC