Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

JAX

52%

LV

48%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–19

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.6 LV
• QB completion %+0.3 LV
• Passing defense+0.1 LV