Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

TB

49%

LAC

51%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–17

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 LAC
• Interception rate+0.3 LAC
• Scoring−0.3 TB
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 TB