New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

NYJ

59%

JAX

41%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

32–25

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 JAX
• Passing defense−0.2 NYJ
• Interception rate−0.1 NYJ
• QB yards/attempt−0.1 NYJ