New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

NE

40%

ARI

60%

Predicted winner

ARI

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–30

Winner ARI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ARI
• Scoring+0.3 ARI
• Rest−0.2 NE
• Passing efficiency−0.1 NE