Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

BUF

41%

DET

59%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

48–42

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DET
• Rushing defense+0.2 DET
• Passing efficiency−0.1 BUF
• Interception rate−0.1 BUF