Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Before kickoff

TB

74%

CAR

26%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

71%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–23

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CAR
• Scoring−0.5 TB
• Scoring differential−0.4 TB
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 TB