Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

CHI

25%

DET

75%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

72%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–23

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.6 DET
• Home field+0.6 DET
• Passing efficiency−0.3 CHI
• Scoring differential+0.3 DET