Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

DET

74%

IND

26%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

71%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–6

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.7 DET
• Home field+0.6 IND
• Scoring−0.6 DET
• QB completion %+0.4 IND