Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

DAL

28%

WAS

72%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

69%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–26

Winner DAL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 WAS
• Home field+0.6 WAS
• QB completion %−0.2 DAL
• Scoring+0.2 WAS