Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Before kickoff

IND

39%

NYJ

61%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–27

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NYJ
• Scoring−0.2 IND
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 NYJ
• Interception rate+0.2 NYJ