Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

GB

59%

CHI

41%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–19

Winner GB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CHI
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 GB
• Scoring−0.3 GB
• Passing efficiency+0.2 CHI