Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

PIT

58%

WAS

42%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–27

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• Scoring+0.3 WAS
• Rushing defense−0.2 PIT
• Rest−0.2 PIT