Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

GB

58%

JAX

42%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–27

Winner GB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 JAX
• Scoring differential−0.2 GB
• Scoring−0.2 GB
• Interception rate+0.2 JAX