Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

CHI

59%

WAS

41%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

15–18

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• QB yards/attempt−0.5 CHI
• QB completion %+0.3 WAS
• Scoring+0.2 WAS