Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

TB

25%

BUF

75%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

18–24

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.6 BUF
• Home field+0.6 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.3 BUF
• Interception rate−0.1 TB