Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

ATL

43%

TB

57%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–13

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 TB
• Interception rate+0.2 TB
• Passing defense−0.1 ATL
• Passing offense−0.1 ATL