New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

NE

59%

LV

41%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–21

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 LV
• QB yards/attempt−0.6 NE
• Scoring+0.2 LV
• QB completion %+0.2 LV