New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

NYJ

39%

DEN

61%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–21

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DEN
• Scoring+0.3 DEN
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 DEN
• Points allowed+0.2 DEN