Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

CHI

34%

WAS

66%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–20

Winner CHI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• Win percentage+0.2 WAS
• Scoring differential+0.2 WAS
• Rushing defense+0.2 WAS