Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

TB

54%

NO

46%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

45%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–9

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NO
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 TB
• Passing defense+0.2 NO
• Interception rate−0.2 TB