New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

NE

30%

DAL

70%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

3–38

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DAL
• Scoring+0.5 DAL
• Rushing defense−0.2 NE
• Scoring differential+0.2 DAL