Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

PIT

41%

LV

59%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

46%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–18

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 LV
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 LV
• Passing efficiency−0.2 PIT
• Interception rate−0.1 PIT