Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

PHI

61%

NE

39%

Predicted winner

PHI

Confidence

34%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–20

Winner PHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NE
• Scoring−0.4 PHI
• Passing efficiency+0.2 NE
• Win percentage−0.1 PHI