Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

JAX

64%

IND

36%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

36%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–21

Winner JAX. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• Scoring−0.4 JAX
• Interception rate−0.3 JAX
• Scoring differential−0.2 JAX