Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

ARI

34%

WAS

66%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

38%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–20

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 WAS
• QB yards/attempt+0.5 WAS
• Passing defense+0.2 WAS
• Points allowed−0.1 ARI